Probability Blackjack
No one can deny that blackjack is so attractive to the gamblers because of its simplicity and the fact that here not only luck runs the show but much depends on your skills. Nevertheless, a lot of amateur gamblers playing blackjack take decisions based upon mere intuition. Unfortunately, with a strategy like that you will hardly become a long-term winner. We recommend you to play considering mathematical principles and be able to understand and use blackjack probability and blackjack odds.
First thing you need to know is that the casino always has an advantage. In most blackjack casinos the house advantage is 7-8%. The house gets this advantage by the dealer being the last player to act. When the dealer acts last, the player has already made the decision and could quite possibly bust before the dealer acts. Regardless of how favourable blackjack rules of the casino are, or how much the odds favor you, this one little detail always gives the house the edge. But this edge is significantly lower than in other casino games, and for this reason blackjack continues to be one of the most popular online casino games.
By using blackjack basic strategy, you can reduce the blackjack odds in favor of casino down to 0.5% but this is possible only if you use advanced card counting systems or at least basic blackjack strategy. You'll significantly increase your chance to beat the house if you remember as much as possible from this page.
Looking at the bust probability of a dealer is a good way to understand why certain plays are recommended when playing blackjack basic strategy. If a player doesn’t use basic strategy, they’re looking at approximately an 8% disadvantage.
- Since a blackjack is made up of an ace and a card valued at 10, and since there are no aces left in the deck, the probability of getting a blackjack is 0%. But you can calculate the probability of getting a blackjack from a fresh deck of cards, too.
- Blackjack probability is a topic that has been discussed in online gaming arguably since its inception. The probability of a specific outcome is dependable on so many variants which make Blackjack so popular. It’s the unpredictable nature of the game that draws in millions and millions of fans to casinos and online casinos every day.
Blackjack Probability of Busting on a Hit
It's very important to know the probability of your hand busting when you are holding any total in the game of blackjack. The following chart shows your blackjack odds of busting with respect to your hand value.
| Hand Value | % Bust If You Hit |
| 21 | 100% |
| 20 | 92% |
| 19 | 85% |
| 18 | 77% |
| 17 | 69% |
| 16 | 62% |
| 15 | 58% |
| 14 | 56% |
| 13 | 39% |
| 12 | 31% |
| 11 or Less | 0% |
Player Advantage vs. Dealer Up Card
This chart shows the chances of a dealer to bust with regard to the up card he has. Note that the dealer has the highest chance to go bust when he is showing a 5.
The third column shows the player advantage of using basic blackjack strategy, compared to each up card the dealer is showing.
Probability Of Blackjack
| Dealer Up Card | Dealer Bust % | Player Advantage % with Basic Strategy |
| 2 | 35.30% | 9.8% |
| 3 | 37.56% | 13.4% |
| 4 | 40.28% | 18.0% |
| 5 | 42.89% | 23.2% |
| 6 | 42.08% | 23.9% |
| 7 | 25.99% | 14.3% |
| 8 | 23.86% | 5.4% |
| 9 | 23.34% | -4.3% |
| J,Q,K | 21.43% | -16.9% |
| A | 11.65% | -16.0% |